@fpllovey here to guide you through some crazy idea for your GW1!
So it feels like there’s been an awful lot of debate about possible strategies to start the season and everyone has done 302827 drafts. I wanted to weigh in with some things to consider.
As usual I have come up with a ‘balls out’ strategy of my own that I will share which I am not necessarily recommending to the rest of you but I will try to outline some possible ideas for you to consider that are slightly less risky.
The main thing that bothers me is building a team without any Man City or Man United players in it. I understand the thinking behind not having one, why would you want so much money sat there on your bench when you could have a more expensive player with a great fixture playing gw1 and then just do the transfer or WC in the subsequent couple of weeks? The question makes sense and there is some validity to the thinking.
However, if you think that EVERYONE will be transferring in Man City and Man United players gw2-gw5, we must in theory think that their prices will rise quite dramatically? Not anything to do with their fixtures or even form if they are poor gw2? Let’s assume for example that KDB will be very highly owned? He was the most owned player for a large part of last season. He is currently 31% owned as I write this article and I’ve seen him in next to 0 drafts on twitter! This is the casuals that haven’t realized he blanks gw1 right? I am expecting him to be well over 50% owned this year which means he will almost undoubtedly rise in gw2, and certainly in gw3 as many are already suggesting that is the time to make the switch from Auba. Are you planning to take him a little higher or will you be priced out? Is it worth having him on the bench like the casuals or is that a little too much to have just sat there gw1? If your’e happy to pay a little bit more that £11.5 for him and you have that capital spare, then fair enough. Remember by gw3 there may be another hot property everyone is getting or you may have players that haven’t been playing or got injured.
Planning your gw3 transfer now is a slight risk in itself. Last year it was Tammy that everyone was clambering for and his price rose as everyone was taking hits in to get him. Many put him in with the early WC which although didn’t effect his price made him a ‘must have’. The difference this year is we can clearly predict who the players that rise will be due to the gw1 blank of two key teams.
So here’s Lovey’s theory. Take from it what you will…
I have decided to bench 2 blanking players in gw1. I first decided that I wanted the 2 cheapest of the decent options from each teams to be able to have an advantage come gw2. Therefore, I’m sat on Greenwood £7.5 (subject to change if Sancho joins) and Laporte £6.0 on my bench. I toyed with Foden but the risk of him not playing and making this plan a complete waste of time was too much for me, (plus his and Greenwood’s antics on international duty make him far more likely to be hidden from the limelight if Pep wants to). I want 2 slots specifically for this plan so the cheaper the better. This totals £13.5 on my bench as opposed to putting KDB there for £11.5 but only having the one blanking player benched. This leaves my gw1 team rather weak in comparison to everyone else’s drafts that are being banded around twitter. I also then plan on taking a hit (-4) the moment gw1 kicks off to bring in KDB and Martial before any rises. I have accepted that my gw1 score will not be as good as everyone else’s on twitter (my team still compromises of Salah, Auba, TAA, Werner, Ings).
This will leave me with a team compromising of Laporte, Martial, Greenwood and KDB for gw2 – something nobody else will have. At gw3 when everyone is making their switches for the Man City and Man United assets I’ll be in a position to look at the other players that are hot and performing, and also still have my valuable WC intact for later in the year. The sound of some of the potential DGW’s that are due in the first half of the season is something that I think having the WC for could be a huge rank booster.
Now my strategy is extremely risky, I’m favoring sacrificing my gw1 rank for having more Man City and Man united assets than anyone else as quickly as possible as I feel they are the hot teams. I am not recommending this at all as it has a huge possibility to backfire and bite me in the arse. My article is based around the idea that benching a blanking player, and reaping the benefits of then making a FT and having 2 of these assets in gw2 gives you that chance to have these players before their rises and when many others don’t.
If I told you last season you could have a week in which you had Martial (or the united asset of your choice) at home for Crystal Palace and you could © him and almost nobody else in the game could do that. Would you have gone for it?
Food for thought. – @FPLLOVEY
Caveat – I wrote this about a fortnight ago and didn’t publish it as I didn’t feel it was ready and since a fair few other accounts have toyed with this idea. If you are going for this with me… Good luck!