Hello all! @RichP_FPL back with another article using FPL Points as a metric. The point of this article is to try and identify a player at each position potentially worth considering for the start of my First Season with a team that will be specifically used for the FPLFPA metric I write about.
What’s The Plan Then?!
This is the first season I’ll have a dedicated team for testing this metric. I’ve been in Cornwall for a few days now, initially on a Lads Jolly (Oi Oi!) before a few days at the In-Laws. The fixtures came out on Thursday at 9am, and Twitter/my phone was going crazy with notifications about plans/strategy. In truth, I’ve done a basic draft but nothing in depth just yet. I’ve got a bit more time now so I can start reading/listening to pods and digesting everything to make a better version of where I want to be come GW1 deadline.
This is my first look at how to start off my Metric Team. The wife has kindly agreed to use her team as my Guinea Pig for this experiment, so I’ll have my main team and her team will be the one that either crashes and burns or does very well…although if it’s a huge success I’ll change it to my main team. No one will notice. Probably.
I’m still unsure how I want to set the Metric Team up for GW1. I could go template and use transfers in line with the metric. I could duplicate my team so that me and the wife have the same teams, then split them according to what the metric is saying. Or I could use historical data to pick a team depending on the fixtures. If we think GW30-38 could be classed as a “Pre-Pre Season” after such a long lay off, this set of data could be the best way to go.
I also want to try and play this team based on Price Points at each position. This will enable me to make any move to any player possible within 2 moves. So, lots to think about. Bloody good job I love all this!
As Apple and Microsoft don’t get on – (the version of Excel they provide for iPad is poor at best) I will have to wait until I get home to my Laptop before inputting the whole fixture list. I do have Irons handy little fixture planner to hand though, so I do have something to work with. So for now I’ll use the FPL Points Data I collated after the restart to identify players I could start with at each position. This will let me identify a few players before I chuck them into some FFHub Stats and see what gets thrown back at me.
So I’m going to look at FPL Points Scored at each position to identify top scoring players. I’m then going to use the FPL Points Against table to identify the easy targets. Then with the fixtures out now, I can identify some early decent runs that might throw me a bone about who to get in my team.
NB: This whole thing could be self sabotage – I drunkenly agreed to a £50 bet with my mate about who finishes higher this season. If he follows my advice and beats me I’ll never live it down. So maybe this stuff is all to throw him off the scent…I see you reading this!
Worth noting that 3 of the 6 teams scoring the most FPL Points don’t have a game GW1. Cheers Premier League. Yes, I know players need rest Bla Bla Bla, but it’s devastating to my planning! So we’re left with Spurs (Lloris), Southampton (McCarthy) and Sheffield U (Ramsdale).
Regarding our whipping boys, Norwich are long gone and Villa are another bunch of blankers. So we’re looking at Palace, Brighton, The Ev and then Sheffield U and Southampton as our targets. Remember: These are the teams that gave up the most FPL Points to opposing Keepers since the restart. So now we want to find someone that plays some/all of these teams in the first few weeks, ideally someone who also scored a lot of FPL points. We can also include the new boys in this, but as we start accumulating the data from the new season, they may or may not be worth targeting.
Lloris – plays Everton, Southampton and Brighton in the first 7 weeks. Not too bad. McCarthy – plays Palace, Everton and Villa in the first 7 weeks. Again, not too bad. Ramsdale – only Villa from the teams above. See ya later.
Does anyone play more than 3 of these teams in the first 7 weeks? Let’s have a look….
No. No they don’t. So let’s compare Lloris vs McCarthy then…
Congratulations Rich, you’ve shown me that a far better Keeper in Lloris, has way better stats than McCarthy. Alright mate, chill out. Lloris is £1m more than McCarthy. If we venture down the Points Per Appearance Per Million route we find that Lloris (98 FPL points/21 Apps/£5.5m) at 0.85 Points Per App Per Million (PPAPM) isn’t much ahead of McCarthy (104 FPL Points/28 apps/£4.5m) on 0.83 PPAPM. Over the course of a season thats about 35 points more, paying an extra £1m for the privilege. So are you spending £5.5m on your man between the sticks or £4.5m and investing that Wonga elsewhere? Thats the difference between Van Dijk and Trent for example. Both excellent options by the way, but we all know we’re going Trent, right guys?
For the purpose of this, I like both. Keepers are usually season keepers innit, so I’d probably plump for McCarthy. No wait, Lloris. No wait, McCarthy. I’ll keep you guessing in case my £50 rival is reading, although to be fair he should pay me £50 for this absolute gold* (DM me for my actual choice).
*may not actually be gold
Same again then. “Always the same” to quote the main man David Brent from The Office…
Wolves assets bossed it after the restart. So did City, probably because their only decent Centre Back in Laporte was fit again. Burnley and Sheffield U were up there all season (caveat – 5 man D Units do skew figures slightly) as well as seeing Liverpool and Man U do well.
Looking at our whipping boys, all 3 relegated teams feature as our “Target these Defences” Punchbags (sorry Lovey, hope Watford come straight back up). Of the remaining teams, Crystal Palace and Villa appear once again, along with Sheffield U, Leicester and Wolves. Odd to see both Sheffield U and Wolves scoring a lot of Defender FPL points but also giving up a lot?!
So ideally, we want a team scoring a lot of FPL points playing numerous teams that conceded a lot of FPL Points to opposition defenders. We can potentially consider the newly promoted teams in these fixture runs too, but this will get adjusted as the season starts and we see how teams are performing.
Let’s consult our fixture list…
I think it’s very clear that Liverpool defenders will feature heavily, so I’m not going to cop out here and say “Buy Trent” or anything like that. I’m also going to avoid the Ayling v Dallas debate as it’s been done to death already by people that know far more about Leeds than I do.
Instead, I am going back to Southampton for a cheap enabler. £5m if I have to, but a decent £4.5m option would be mint. They play Palace and Villa in the first 7, plus potential for Clean Sheets against Everton, Burnley and newly promoted West Brom.
Clean sheets are great, aren’t they? Like, really great. But isn’t it a massive ball ache when you lose it? Clean Sheet Wipeouts are the worst. So I want creative defenders that get amongst it at the other end as well. Enter Kyle Walker-Peters. After the restart he was only behind Lamptey of Brighton for Big Chances Created at the £4.5m price point. He outperformed Bertrand who once again is more expensive, so as a cheap enabler, he’s been added to my basket. Or has he, money rival?!
I say creative…there are more creative defenders at this price point, but in worse teams/with worse fixtures. This is probably a good point to mention this will all be fluid based on the metric. Another risk with KWP is the double up on Saint’s D. So if I do go that way, expectations must be managed.
(NB: I also have my eye on Tariq Lamptey of Brighton (except for poor fixtures) and Matt Targett of Villa, who was the spiciest £4.5m defender in terms of creativity last year, but Villa blank and then have some dodgy fixtures. Sorry JJ.)
Always the same…
City bossing it, as per. Ridiculous talent in their midfield area. Disgusting. No surprise to see Man U, Liverpool and Chelsea in here as well. What on earth are West Ham doing there?! Absolutely mental. I’ve had to add the numbers up 3 times but they’re still right…
Our 3 departed teams feature once more here (no wonder they went down etc etc) as do Palace and Villa. Brighton and Newcastle as well, with a sprinkling of Arsenal just above them.
Does any team play most of these in their opening games…
BINGO! We have a winner. Whilst Man United blank in GW1, they play Palace GW2, Brighton GW3, Newcastle GW5 and Arsenal GW7. Let’s go live to the spinaroo to decide which United midfield asset to go for.
Just kidding. Cases could be made for any of Bruno, Greenwood or Rashford. Hell, if Sancho joins, it’s a very difficult choice. We’ve lost Martial to the Forwards category but gained Rashford in return. I’m going to run a comparison between Bruno and Rashford. I feel like Greenwood will also do well, and is great value at £7.5m, but I want to check the numbers of Bruno v Rashford since Bruno signed.
Bruno has been sensational since he signed for United. Pains me to say that as a Liverpool fan, but he transformed them. He outperformed Rashford since the restart, but Rashford was coming off the back of a bad injury. Rashford created more Big Chances and also had more touches in the box/shots in the box. If he can get his shooting boots on he might be worth that extra £1m in the bank. It appears they share penalties too, and we all know how many penalties United get…
I think I’ll go for Bruno. He’ll likely have a higher ownership and will feed the majority of the front line. I will need to make sure I have adequate cover for the GW1 blank, or bring him in for GW2/3. Plus they’ve just signed Donny van de Beek and he won the most penalties in Eredivisie last year, so…
Really close here between the teams remaining in the league for 2020/21. Remember, these are the stats from the restart, which, alongside the pre-season fixtures, may give us a reasonable indication of how teams are going to start this season.
As we’ve lost the bottom 3 on this table, and there are marginal points differences between Everton (72 Fantasy Points conceded) and Arsenal (62 Fantasy Points conceded), we’ll be looking for runs of fixtures that contain Everton, Sheffield U, Brighton, Palace, Leicester and West Ham. If we’re struggling I’d expand that to include Southampton and Newcastle. I’d also happily consider Aston Villa as well, on the basis they conceded a total of 322 FPL points to opposition Forwards over the course of the season, which was second only to Everton on 323.
In terms of Fantasy Points scored by Forwards, it’s worth bearing in mind that Arsenal fall out of this category because of Aubameyang being reclassified as a Midfielder. Rashford and Martial switch places, and practically switch points too. So we will leave them where they are.
Selected Forwards with 3 or more of these teams in their first 7 games:
- Jiménez plays 4 of these teams in his opening 7 games (Sheffield U, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace).
- Harry Kane plays 4 of these teams in his opening 7 games (Everton, Newcastle, West Ham and Brighton).
- Roberto Firmino plays 4 of these teams in his opening 7 games (Aston Villa, Everton, Sheffield U and West Ham).
- Danny Ings plays 3 of these teams in his opening 7 games (Palace, Everton and Aston Villa).
- Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin play 3 of these teams in their opening 7 games (Palace, Brighton and Newcastle).
- Aguero and Jesus play 3 of these teams in their opening 6 games (Leicester, West Ham and Sheffield U).
- Anthony Martial plays 3 of these teams in their opening 4 games (Palace, Brighton and Newcastle).
This leaves us plenty to choose from. The City/United blank is somewhat infuriating, as Aguero is a fantastic price this year, and Martial looks appealing as a Forward. He scored 200 points last year, and whilst that drops to around 177 points if he were a Forward, that is good enough for 4th overall from last years strikers. As mentioned though, both him and Agüero/Jesus blank in GW1.
I’ll also clarify whilst I’m here: I love Bobby Firmino. He’s an exceptional footballer. Sure, he couldn’t hit a barn door last year, but he’s a genius. He just isn’t a good FPL asset based on last year. So at £9.5m, I’m ruling him out.
I’m going to steer clear of the Everton attack until I’ve seen them in action, so this leaves me with Ings, Kane and Jiménez. Let’s throw them into the FFHub mixer for some player comparisons…
From this I think all have their merits, but what I’m drawn to is how much of an all rounder Jiménez is. He creates more big chances than the others and his xA is higher, whilst almost matching both Ings and Kane for Big Chances himself. The only thing that lets Jiménez down is his Bonus Points.
The 4 top scoring Forwards for bonus include our boys mentioned above, and JVards, who is surely getting too old for a party by now? Over the season, DIngs scored 7 more bonus points than Jiménez in less minutes and 14 more than Kane on slightly more minutes.
Looking at average FPL points per appearance, Martial is top, but this is because his points haven’t been readjusted for if he was a Forward. He’d still be hitting a sweet 5.7 PPG though. However, this would knock him below our man Danny and even Gabriel Jesus. Kane sits on 5.45 PPG despite missing a chunk of the season and Jiménez sits on 5.22 PPG. So we have a decision to make…
(I realise the Forward chat is way more than the other positions but I feel its a tricky position this year)
At some point in my drafts I’ve had Ings and/or Kane in all of them, but never Jiménez. This research has charmed me, so Jiménez is going in the metric team!
So let’s recap! Our 4 squad members based on the FPA Metric and FFHub research are:
- McCarthy (SOU)/Lloris (TOT)
- Kyle Walker-Peters (SOU)
- Bruno Fernandes (MUN)
- Raul Jiménez (WOL)
Now to work out the rest of the squad. This will likely be a combination of well owned players and my main team to see how both teams differ over the course of the season! We’ve got some cheap enablers and some mid price players, leaving us £72/£73m to play with.
Thanks for reading guys, and may your arrows be green. If ever you want to chat FPL feel free to get me on Twitter @RichP_FPL or slide into those DMs!