A key debate in the strange world of FPL Twitter at the moment is “Why would you FH, when you have unlimited transfers?” I want to discuss my rationale behind my decision and hopefully articulate the reasons behind the plan.
The season came to an abrupt end after GW29 in March due to Covid-19 (If you weren’t aware…). Between GW30 and GW38 the game remained open and we had the ability to make a transfer per week, just like any other GW, despite games not taking place. I decided to analyse the fixtures that teams had left and create a squad using 7/8 transfers, in essence giving myself another wildcard that was perfect for the remainder of the season. For example, teams like Wolves, United and Burnley have relatively favourable fixtures. This meant that I kept players like Pope and Jimenez in my squad whilst making transfers to bring in star players like Fernandes, Doherty and Maguire.
Looking at my squad now I’d potentially make 2/3 moves if I wanted to, to get it exactly where I want it. But the benefit of the unlimited transfers for me is a lot less than that of somebody who has a squad full of Watford, AFCB, Burnley and Spurs players, in preparation for the BGW that was meant to occur in the original GW31.
The only chip I have remaining is the FH chip, given that the unlimited transfers aren’t as beneficial to me as others… can I potentially gain an advantage using the FH now? I believe so yes.
First of all, the key teams within my squad are Man United, Liverpool and Wolves. United and Liverpool face tough tests against Spurs and Everton respectively, and Wolves play West Ham, and with football only just back I’d rather not have it in the back of my mind that a Doherty and Jimenez goal would be great for my FPL rank.
Secondly, I have saved the FH all season to maximise the fixtures within a double. My squad now contains triple City, triple Arsenal, triple Sheffield United and double Villa, meaning that if everybody starts (Fingers crossed) I have 22 fixtures compared to potentially 15/16 that most other non-FH teams will have.
I went for the most expensive premium assets from Arsenal and City (Aguero, Auba, Pepe, KDB and Sterling) in the hope that I can receive the “Upside” of them as assets. Aguero could quite easily score 5 goals in these 2 fixtures, it’s unlikely, but certainly a risk worth taking.
Where Arsenal and City are better sides offensively, I believe that Sheffield United’s defensive abilities have made their back 5 arguably, the best budget picks this season. So in order to fit in the premium City and Arsenal assets, I have gone for a triple Sheffield United backline (Stevens, Baldock and Egan). Based on work by @FPLMuzzy the “home” advantage doesn’t seem to exist when games are behind closed doors, so Sheffield United vs Villa and Newcastle in a double seems like the perfect opportunity for a triple up at the back!
Grealish is obviously the talisman for Villa, so he makes the team without question. The final spot is going to be between McGinn and Samatta. McGinn is the better player, but a part of me wants to take that punt on a £5.8m striker in a double. If he scores I’ll go fucking apeshit. (Hopefully in a 6-1 loss to Chelsea).
Everyone is in a very different position at the moment, but if your team is looking relatively solid or can be fixed in 2/3 moves, the FH is seriously worth considering as we are unlikely to get another DGW this season!
Many thanks for reading.
Luke (FPLIrons) ❤